A new report takes a sweeping look at the “new normal” coming soon to college campuses across America.
The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education’s study, Knocking at the College Door, predicts that while the number of high school graduates in the United States is expected to decline in the coming years after peaking in 2010-11 at 3.4 million, the diversity of graduates will rapidly increase.
The study urges policymakers to address the change by better serving students who have not been served well in the past.
The report also breaks down its predictions on a state-by-state basis. Just three states are expected to see swift expansion in high school graduates–Colorado, Texas and Utah.
The study predicts that by 2019-20, about 45 percent of public high school graduates will not be white, driven in large part by growth in the Latino population. Between 2008-09 and 2019-20, the report projects that white high school graduates will drop by 228,000 as Hispanic graduates increase by 197,000. Asian graduates are expected to increase, and black graduates are projected to decrease.
The report also predicts that by that year graduating high school classes will become majority-minority in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maryland and Nevada. Currently, California, Hawaii, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas are majority-minority.
Detailed data on a state-by-state basis can be found here.
WICHE has 15 states that are members and works on public policy research and expanding educational access. The report was also backed by the ACT and College Board.